Simple stories, complex world

In practising strategy and design, we strive for simplicity. We discern, select, and choose what to focus on, where, and how to direct our attention. Life is complex. Every organism, natural ecosystem, and human system is complex. The universe is complex, beautiful, and fascinating.

Philosophers, neuroscientists, and psychologists study our brain's extraordinary abilities and how it handles rising complexity. Scholars observe that to cope with complexity, we ignore irrelevant information. John Vervaeke, professor of psychology and cognitive science at the University of Toronto, calls this relevance realisation. Drawing on the work of AI pioneers Newell and Simon, Vervaeke argues that intelligence is not about the ability to process vast quantities of information, but rather the ability to ignore most of it and zero-in on what is relevant. That’s how chess masters operate, for example. When the 'problem space' (the amount of possible moves, for instance) is too big, a solution cannot be found by searching it. Intelligence involves the ability to avoid the combinatorial explosion of the problem space. ^[1]

This concept applies to problem solving in strategy and design. We must make sense of complex situations. We must zero-in on the relevant information to produce a concise and meaningful synthesis. The idea must be easy to grasp and understand while also conveying the "bigger picture".

Attention

In his masterwork The Matter With Things, Iain McGilchrist shows, through compelling evidence, how our brain's two hemispheres operate. They allow us to focus simultaneously on very narrow tasks while remaining aware of the broader context from which unpredictable threats or opportunities may arise.

The hemisphere hypothesis is deceptively simple: the bi-hemispheric structure of the brain makes possible attending to the world simultaneously in two otherwise incompatible ways. ^[2]

McGilchrist defines the difference between the hemispheres as a difference in the quality of attention. He does not equate it to rationality vs. emotion or verbal vs. visual orientation, as many do. The left hemisphere’s attention is directed to what we can handle and manipulate (mani means hands). Conversely, the right hemisphere is focused on the bigger picture.

These two ways of seeing the world are each vital to our survival. We need to simplify and stand apart to manipulate things, to deal with the necessities of life, and to build the foundations of a civilisation. But to live in it, we also need to belong to the world and to understand the complexity of what it is we are dealing with. This division of attention works to our advantage when we use both. However, it is a handicap – in fact, it is a catastrophe – when we use only one. ^[2:1]

Attention — defined by McGilchrist as “the manner in which our consciousness is disposed towards whatever else exists” — has the power to alter whatever it meets. It is the way we construct the world. The way we attend has the power to change what is being attended to, so it is easy to see how deception and delusion can take hold. We build a map of the world and filter reality through it. What is not on the map becomes hidden in plain sight.

Communicators capitalise on this feature. Propaganda (or PR, as we call it now),^[3] branding, and advertising all work by capturing the audience's attention and focus. A shift of attention can cause a shift in the audience's worldview, altering their behaviour to suit the communicator’s objectives — for example, to influence the choice of a brand in a shop, the choice of candidate in an election, or to stir social unrest.

Simple-minded propositions

Populist movements thrive on simple stories (‘Take Back Control’, ‘L’Italia agli Italiani’, ‘Make America Great Again’) and conspiracy theories (Cabal, Q-Anon). They single out an enemy: the immigrants, the ‘elites’, or the Jews. Speaking on the Lex Fridman podcast, Yuval Noah Harari argued that these stories are so attractive precisely because they are simple.

You don’t need to understand everything that happens in the world, you just need to understand one thing. The war in Ukraine, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, 5G technology, COVID-19; it’s simple. There is this global cabal. They do all of it. (...) Nazism began as a conspiracy theory. (…) The basic Nazi idea was that Jews control the world. Get rid of the Jews, you’ve solved all the world’s problems. ^[4]

Problems are real; people may feel out of control. As Harari points out, conspiracy theories absolve us of responsibility (it’s them, not us), creating a fantasy (without them, all will be fine). By focusing attention on the scapegoat, they hide the real, if more complex, causes of the problems that generated the unrest — as we have seen with the recent anti-immigrant ‘protests’ in the UK.

Simple stories make it easier to grab people’s attention. The probability of a second Trump term as US president — rendered more likely by the manifest weakness of his opponent — seems to have slightly decreased. Why? Not because of a deep understanding of the facts. Nor after carefully analysing its potential implications for democracy or the actual Biden administration's economic performance. It changed thanks to simple and effective repositioning. With Biden finally stepping down, the Democrats could change the story and simplify the message: no longer (I paraphrase) Old vs Bold. Now it’s Joy vs Weird. “We are not going back”, chant scores of democratic supporters. Trump & Vance represent the past. Harris & Walz the future. It may not be enough, but it is simple, and it is catchy.

We (humans) learn to ignore most information and narrow the focus to manage complexity. Still, there is a significant downside: we confuse the map with the territory and miss the broader context, creating our bubble of self-deception. Trump voters are not interested in data. They take offence when you offer it. The same happened with many Brexit voters who, allegedly, ‘had enough of experts’. We all prefer to believe the simple stories that confirm our preconceived opinions and reject whatever does not fit the alternate reality in our ‘map’. Everyone does, myself included. To challenge our own preconceptions requires continuous vigilance.

Ambidextrous minds

In his first book, The Master and His Emissary, McGilchrist argues that Western culture has favoured left-hemispheric thinking, causing a widespread hemispheric imbalance. This imbalance affects our perception of reality and the societal structures we create. We need to redress the balance.

...as in life, science needs both narrow focus and broad vision. ^[2:2]

A sort of ambidexterity of the mind or, more precisely, of our attention. Flitting between the view of the eagle and that of the mouse. Working together as specialists and generalists, embracing complexity while mastering simplicity.

Mental ambidexterity is needed to produce meaningful synthesis through symbolic means: language, images, memes. There is art and craft in that. Whether practising or experiencing it, we can appreciate the complex world it evokes, not just its succinct presentation. Let us contemplate the moon, not the finger pointing to it.

Author and entrepreneur Thomas Björkman invites us to turn our gaze towards an increasingly complex world. This requires cultivating our inner complexity and developing a better symbolic universe since the one we have is fragmented and unfit for purpose.

To understand and manage an increasingly complex world, our inner complexity needs to match the outer complexity of our world. As the world grows more complex, so must we as individual thinking creatures – along with our social institutions and the narratives about reality that we tell ourselves and others. ^[5]

There is a powerful relationship between complexity and simplicity. As I noted elsewhere, the opposite of simple is complicated, not complex.

Roughly speaking, ‘complexity’ refers to qualitative aspects (the particular ways things are ordered), ‘complicated’ merely quantitative ones (the number of things in interaction with each other). ^[5:1]

I see simplicity as a fundamental quality of higher-level ideas emerging from complexity. Consider the elegance of a mathematical equation representing natural phenomena, the ease of a painter’s brush stroke embodying their lifelong journey, or the clarity of a poem capturing intense emotions in a few words. A good name, a well-crafted logo, and a strong brand idea can evoke a world of meaning.

Simple ideas are hard to craft but easy to appreciate. They are how we find our way to meaning and beauty in this extraordinarily complex reality.